Start with Clear Objectives
Deck choice depends on whether you are chasing personal bests, streaming variety, or prepping for a specific opponent. Define the outcome before running the numbers.
Objective categories
- Speed: prioritize decks with high solvability and low variance.
- Audience engagement: focus on decks with rare layouts or dramatic finish potential.
- Opponent disruption: choose variants where your rival has weak stats.
Collect and Normalize Your Data
Build a Numbers spreadsheet with columns for deck seed, variant, solve time, redeal count, and error tags. Record at least fifty attempts per variant to obtain meaningful averages.
Use Shortcuts to append new results automatically. Consistent formatting across weeks makes trend analysis easy and reduces manual errors.
Run Probability Simulations
After collecting data, simulate matchups. Use the RANDARRAY function to estimate win rates. Focus on how decks perform under tournament constraints like time limits and limited redeals.
Simple simulation steps
- Create a table with variant name, average time, and standard deviation.
- Use NORM.INV to generate expected times for hypothetical runs.
- Compare two variants by running 1000 simulated matches and tallying wins.
Blend Quantitative and Qualitative Signals
Numbers tell part of the story. Record qualitative notes such as how a deck feels under pressure or whether a layout is entertaining for viewers. Use weighted scoring to balance data and intuition.
| Factor | Weight | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Average solve time | 40 percent | Measured across recent runs |
| Consistency | 25 percent | Standard deviation and redeals |
| Entertainment value | 20 percent | Audience feedback |
| Personal confidence | 15 percent | Subjective rating after practice |
Track Opponent Tendencies
Scout opponents by logging their deck preferences and performance. Watch VODs and note timeouts or repeated errors. Use this intel to adjust your pick and ban strategy.
Scouting cues
- Decks they avoid selecting during open tournaments.
- Average pace during decisive games.
- Reaction under high pressure segments such as forced redeals.
Review and Iterate Monthly
Deck meta shifts quickly. Revisit your dataset every month, update weights, and archive old decks for historical reference. Keep a changelog so you know why decisions evolved.